Womany Knitting Press:
Is the trade agreement signed or not signed? Whether good or bad, before the comments, we can deal with the agreement on the Treaty to do a more solid deep excavation and discussion. So in addition to bringing in the scene of the faithful direct hit report ( One night sleepless black box indignation: anti-trade black box on the scene direct Strike ), in addition to the counter to the trade black box Five questions five answer visit , also provides "to support the adoption of trade" view for reference. (Recommended reading: is trade a poison or an antidote?) )
We are convinced that every written word is loaded with strength, every faithful report has a positive influence, and we certainly understand the importance of balanced reporting. So we specifically visit the master of Political Science, currently engaged in cross-strait relations related industries, for the trade agreement has a deep understanding of Mr. C to answer the following about the pros and cons of the seven questions and answers!
Before opposing or supporting, do you really know what you are opposing and supporting? Let's hear it for a while. Mr C believes that the trade agreement is imperative: Taiwan will face a greater threat of marginalization if it does not sign a trade agreement, and that without a trade agreement, Taiwan would eventually lose its most proud export competitiveness.
1. Do you think that the trade agreement will do more harm than good to Taiwan? Where's Lee? What's the downside?
I think there are more advantages than disadvantages.
The main focus of interest is to allow Taiwan to keep up with the trend of world trade liberalization and avoid marginalization (see question 4th).
The main point of the cons I think there are two, the first is that vulnerable industries will suffer because of lack of competitiveness (but this is an unavoidable problem in economic liberalization), and the second is that the link between Taiwan and mainland China will deepen rather than weaken, which is bad for those who want to move to Taiwan's independence.
On the other hand, the so-called "national security" problem, may make the Chinese Communist Party to Taiwan's infiltration will become easier. But my view is that even if we know that the mainland has a clear and unified vision of Taiwan, but in this time and space background, we still have to embark on the road of trade liberalization with the mainland, because if we do not go this way, Taiwan's economic competitiveness will fall seriously, and Taiwan will have less capital to contend with the mainland. Therefore, the economic and trade liberalization brought about by the national security risk is the necessary evil, unavoidable.
2. Why do you support trade? Who do you think will be the biggest beneficiary of this agreement? Who's going to be badly affected?
Again, because I do not think Taiwan can alien the trend of liberalization of the world economy (see question 4th).
Which industries benefit from what industries I am not sure, but I can say that some people will benefit, some people are affected, the focus is "towards liberalisation" is not the way to go, I think yes. And the liberalisation of China as Taiwan's largest trading partner and neighbour is inevitable.
3. Is the assumption that the "mainland immigrants will easily increase", which is a worrying one, is possible?
Figure remake from Network
It's impossible. there is no trade agreement to open mainland workers to Taiwan , only to open up high level white-collar workers, and there is a limit on investment, these people will have to apply for permission every time, through our competent authorities for approval, so there should be no so-called " Investment immigration "phenomenon, the number of people will not be a lot of breath.
Womany Information added: Taiwan opened China's capital amount of 200,000 U.S. dollars (about NT $6 million) of the enterprise limit of two persons in charge to Taiwan, or turnover of more than NT $10 million, has been invested 300,000 U.S. dollars (about NT $9 million) above, to apply for 1 technicians, Each additional 500,000 dollars (about NT $15 million) will be applied for another person, up to a maximum of seven persons.
4. Does this trade agreement really help "free trading" and "open trade"? How to help?
My logic is this: now is the era of global trade liberalization, since the deadlock in the WTO rounds of negotiations, countries began to develop bilateral multilateral free trade Agreement (FTA), such regional economic integration in the past decade has become the mainstream.
Taiwan is limited by international status (most countries do not recognize), in this wave of a lot behind, in 2008 only with the United States five diplomatic relations countries signed FTA, accounting for all of China's export trade volume of less than 1%.
China's main trade rivals South Korea, in recent years, and the major countries to sign FTA, the current South Korea has with the United States, the European Union to complete FTA negotiations, and China's FTA is under negotiation, the Sino-Japan-ROK FTA is also in the negotiations. Currently, 36% of Korea's exports are tax-free, in Taiwan, less than 1% before 2008, plus a list of the ECFA that has already been negotiated with mainland China, it is less than 6% (Taiwan added two FTA to New Zealand and Singapore last year, but I do not know that in addition to the two countries, Taiwan's export tax allowances will reach a few, Should be no more than 10%). If Taiwan does not step up its pace and sign FTA with major trading partners, the competitiveness of our export products will become more and more distant with South Korea in a few years.
Taiwan is a country with export as its main economic growth, and if exports are hit, the overall economic growth will be severely impacted.
Under this logic, how can Taiwan expedite FTA negotiations with major trading partners? I think the first priority is to start from mainland China.
As we all know, the mainland has always done its best to suppress the international participation of Taiwan, so to improve the international situation of Taiwan, I think it is necessary to start with the improvement of relations with the mainland (this is the logic of Ma's years)
After 2008, the cross-strait relations have improved markedly, the mainland has relaxed a little in the international space of Taiwan, and Taiwan has successfully completed FTA negotiations with New Zealand and Singapore. After the signing of the ECFA, after the relevant agreement (insurance, trade, goods trade, dispute resolution 4) If successfully completed, cross-strait FTA is done. The mainland, which accounts for 40% of Taiwan's exports, is Taiwan's biggest exporter, and Taiwan can only maintain its export competitiveness if it completes its FTA with the mainland as soon as possible, especially before South Korea.
On the other hand, the first to complete the FTA with the mainland, it also helps to reduce the resistance of the mainland to the negotiation of FTA between our country and other countries (this part still has the argument that, even if the FTA with the mainland, does not represent the mainland will allow our country and other countries to negotiate smoothly, but my view is helpful)
So in this context, in fact, the content of the trade agreement itself has become less important, the focus is to make good relations with the mainland, the speedy completion of FTA negotiations with the mainland, in order to promote Taiwan's FTA negotiations with other countries, in order to allow Taiwan to not lag behind the main rival South Korea in this wave.
Another point is that these negotiations have a time pressure, more than the opponent to complete the negotiations before the first step into the market, slow people wait until the completion of negotiations, it is possible to enter the already occupied market.
5. Will the adoption of this trade agreement affect the appreciation and depreciation of the NT dollar? What impact do you expect to have after the adoption of the trade agreement, and can you outline the psychological preparations for the Taiwanese people?
Money I do not understand that, the devaluation I can not analyze.
My view is that after the passage of the trade, most Taiwanese people will not feel any significant impact at all.
Because the market for small and medium-sized industries in Taiwan (Beauty salons, car rentals, funerals and the like) is mostly saturated, and Taiwan's services are inherently strong, quality is much better than the mainland, and their operators are uncompetitive. Without opening up the mainland workers, only a small number of white-collar cadres come to Taiwan, so there will not be many mainlanders to work in Taiwan, less than usual feel.
I think the psychological preparation for Taiwanese should be to be prepared to face the liberalization of global trade without particularly targeting the mainland's services and goods trade. In fact, Taiwan had already faced such a shock when it joined the WTO in 2001, and remember that rice wine rose from 20 to 120 yuan? That is the impact of joining the WTO.
6. What do you think about the opening up of competition v.s to small and medium enterprises in Taiwan? Has the government ever thought of any supporting measures to protect the employment rate of SMEs and young people in Taiwan?
Some people will benefit from the liberalization of trade. It is the government's job to reassure the people of this new situation, to meet the challenges (there are many new markets to develop), to transform or compensate for the impact.
The uncompetitive industries are going to disappear sooner or later, and such openness will ultimately benefit all people. Just like the rise of convenience stores and hypermarkets, the disappearance of small grocery stores and the quality of service, should we not allow Carrefour and the good city to invest in the industry because of the protests of small grocery operators?
The following paragraph, which I quote from a PhD classmate,"market openness must be accompanied by the Government's commitment to provide adequate domestic compensation to the damaged sector, so that the benefits of market openness can be fully demonstrated, as well as to stabilize people's confidence in open markets and to increase their support for open markets"
7. Many people look at this trade agreement will feel that the two sides are wrong, Taiwan has too many concessions, the government is willing to sign this agreement, behind the strong reasons?
That's because these people have not looked at the agreement very carefully. China opened 80, all over WTO commitments, and Taiwan opened 64, and only One-third was higher than WTO commitments. From the overall point of view, Taiwan is more than the given, of course, some of the industry is we compromise, we let go, otherwise how do we ask someone else do not want to give? (same field Gayon: is the trade a poison or an antidote?) )
Just look at the parts of our compromise (for example, a lot of anti-trade lazy people bag), we will feel that talk about a thing, you see the counter-trade lazy man bag said that our e-commerce, financial insurance and other industries to get into the mainland market conditions? I think in general, we've got a lot more of this agreement.
What do you think about the service trade? Welcome message to discuss with us!
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Text finishing: Womany editorial office/Audrey Ko